The Corporation: Will It Be Managed by Machines?

Herbert A. Simon, in M. Anshen & G. L. Bach (eds.), Management and Corporations 1985, McGraw-Hill, 1960. An outline without the text: each card names the section of the chapter it covers, and together the cards cover every paragraph exactly once.

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Machines will be able to run the corporation by 1985, yet people will still do roughly the same jobs

Simon forecasts the long-run equilibrium: the technical ability to replace people in every function, and comparative advantage deciding where people still work. The Broader Significance of Automation

1The question and its limits

What is forecast, and what is left out. Introduction

A building site outside the window: mechanical elephants, their mahouts and wheelbarrows show today's division of labour. Introduction
Gross effects at the point of impact vs. net effects in later ripples; transient and indirect effects. Introduction
Transient harms are set aside; the rule: the society that gains pays for the change and compensates the losers. Introduction
The task is to picture society in its new equilibrium, after every secondary adjustment has been made. Introduction
A plan in four parts: equilibrium, the new technology, the automation of management, the wider meaning. Introduction
2The hammer and the anvil

The frame of the forecast: what changes by itself, what stays put, and how comparative advantage decides. Predicting Long-Run Equilibrium – The Invariants

The forecast rests on two things: autonomous first causes (the hammer) and fixed givens (the anvil). Predicting Long-Run Equilibrium
The hammer: growing knowledge sets what is feasible, growing capital what is economical; the new knowledge is how thinking works. The Causes of Change
Within far less than 25 years, machines able to substitute for “any and all human functions in organizations”. The Causes of Change
The anvil: full employment and an unchanged spread of ability. Change shows in the occupational profile, not in unemployment. The Invariants
The paradox: if machines win everywhere, are people unemployable? No: prices adjust, and comparative advantage decides. The Invariants
A computer 1,000× faster than a bookkeeper, 100× faster than a stenographer: fewer bookkeepers, more stenographers. The Invariants
3The nearly automatic factory and office

What automation in production and in the office already teaches. The New Technology of Information Processing – The Occupational Profile

Automation continues the Industrial Revolution: first muscle power, now sensing, choosing and handling. The New Technology of Information Processing
The workerless factory is feasible, but the typical 1985 factory will be at the level of a 1960 refinery. The Nearly Automatic Factory and Office
The office automates faster than the factory; both become small groups working with large machines. The Nearly Automatic Factory and Office
Fewer people per unit of output does not mean fewer people in total. The Nearly Automatic Factory and Office
A warning against the same error as with comparative advantage The Nearly Automatic Factory and Office
Lesson 1: work is not dehumanised; it tends to become more pleasant The Nearly Automatic Factory and Office
Lesson 2: the profile of skill levels barely changes The Nearly Automatic Factory and Office
The occupational profile also depends on income and price elasticities: the psychiatry example. The Occupational Profile
The cheapest automation removes a step altogether: garbage ground into the sewer, a Columbus egg. The Occupational Profile
4Flexibility: where people keep their edge

The human as a bundle of capacities, and two ways around human flexibility. Another Approach to Prediction – Environmental Control a Substitute for Flexibility

Classify people by capacities, not occupations: eyes, brain, hands, legs, muscles; general vs. special-purpose machines. Another Approach to Prediction
Mechanisation took muscle and repetition; what remained was flexible thinking, senses, hands and moving over rough ground. Another Approach to Prediction
Flexibility is the human comparative advantage. Imitate it in the machine, or remove the need for it? Another Approach to Prediction
The brain's problem solving will be automated before the eyes, hands and legs. Flexibility in Automata
Controlling the environment substitutes for flexibility, and the effect accumulates step by step. Environmental Control a Substitute for Flexibility
Adapt the organism to the environment, or the environment to the organism; homeostasis Environmental Control a Substitute for Flexibility
The smooth road, standardised raw material, transfer machines Environmental Control a Substitute for Flexibility
Mechanisation has more often removed the need for flexibility than imitated it Environmental Control a Substitute for Flexibility
Source data will be made machine-readable. High status is no shelter: physician, vice-president, college teacher. Environmental Control a Substitute for Flexibility
5Man as man's environment

Interaction, supervision and selling, and what the 1985 organisation looks like. Man as Man’s Environment – Summary: Blue-collar and Clerical Automation

Other people are the roughest part of the environment. Much interaction exists to supervise human work. Man as Man’s Environment
Work-pushing and expediting shrink from supervision once machines and schedules set the pace. Man as Man’s Environment
The salesman: if buying does not become more objective, selling takes a larger share of employment. Man as Man’s Environment
Three roles: a few in-line workers, a growing maintenance force, professionals in design and management. Summary: Blue-collar and Clerical Automation
Stressful supervisory relations decline; face-to-face personal service grows as a share of work. Summary: Blue-collar and Clerical Automation
The outcome does not upend work: a more relaxed world, and perhaps more of us will be salesmen. Summary: Blue-collar and Clerical Automation
6The automation of management

Programmed decisions go first, ill-structured ones follow. The Automation of Management – Some Other Dimensions of Change in Management

Decision making in the broad sense: finding problems, designing courses of action, choosing. A continuum from programmed to unprogrammed. The Automation of Management
Three stages; the first two take most of the effort The Automation of Management
Programmed and unprogrammed decisions; a loose link to organisational level The Automation of Management
Two techniques: operations research and heuristic programming The Automation of Management
Operations research already makes middle management's repetitive decisions at least as well as managers do. Operations Research
Operations research as a movement and as a method Operations Research
Six examples: inventory, order flow, scheduling, motor design, feed mixes, an airline Operations Research
Middle management's share will shrink within a few years Operations Research
Computers are not speedy morons: they handle symbols, understand compilers and can learn. Heuristic Programing
They replace people without simulating them Heuristic Programing
Four statements about computers Heuristic Programing
Three chess programs: about a million, 2,500 and under 50 alternatives examined, all at the same weak level. Heuristic Programing
What a heuristic program is, and examples Heuristic Programing
Los Alamos, Bernstein, RAND-Carnegie Heuristic Programing
Within ten years or less, ill-structured problems too Heuristic Programing
Economically, people keep their edge in physical flexibility better than in mental; middle management shrinks most. Heuristic Programing – A Summary: The Automation of Management
The manager's job: a longer time horizon, less technical knowledge needed, programmers will not become an elite. Some Other Dimensions of Change in Management
A longer horizon: planning and redesigning systems Some Other Dimensions of Change in Management
Managers will need to know less about the machinery Some Other Dimensions of Change in Management
Programming is likelier to die out than to rule Some Other Dimensions of Change in Management
Systems thinking, for which there is no science yet Some Other Dimensions of Change in Management
7The broader significance

Once scarcity is gone, the long-range questions remain. The Broader Significance of Automation – Man in the Universe

Two predictions that seem to clash: machines could run the corporation, yet occupations stay familiar. The Broader Significance of Automation
Scarcity stops being the first problem; the fears of technological unemployment and of robots (R.U.R.) can be dropped. The Broader Significance of Automation
Three long-range problems: a science of man, goals other than work, and man's place in the universe. The Broader Significance of Automation
A science of man: by 1985 psychology as successful as chemistry now, with consequences for teaching and psychiatry. A Science of Man
The problem of leisure; the corporation loses its place as a source of status and creativity. Social Goals
Copernicus, Darwin, Freud — and now thinking machines take away the last claim to uniqueness. Man in the Universe